The Coercive Logic of Suicide Terrorism in Jerusalem—Kallie Eisenberger
Using violence as a means of diplomatic coercion is not a new phenomenon. Since the beginning of conflict, parties have used violence to ensure cooperation, gain power, and intimidate their enemy. Military force, as seen in the past and present, is the power and ability “to hurt” someone by destroying value in addition to taking and protecting things of value. But, up until about sixty years ago, the pain, shock, loss, and grief were all incidental aspects of war and not necessarily intentional. Among the many lessons and military developments of World War II, however, the power to hurt was harnessed and came to be among the most impressive of military attributes. The realization that if violence could be incidental, it could also be purposeful was used to affect change and eventually became a crucial tool in international diplomacy. Take for example the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was not so much because of the direct impact of this bomb that led to surrender, after all more citizens were lost in the fire-bombings carried out through the war. But instead, it was the knowledge of the power to hurt held by the United States, and the fear of the Japanese that this power would be used again. Likewise, the Cold War was based on the promise of violence and not the actual use of violence as in other wars. The promise to hurt is perhaps what kept nuclear war from breaking out at all. The progression of violence over the last century in particular has lead to the realization of the effectiveness of violence when used as a form of diplomacy and coercion, and it is out of this new realization that suicide terrorism has not only been implemented, but become a logical strategic move.
It is hard to imagine that anything as horrible and devastating as suicide terrorism could be anything but fanatics but, in its most basic sense, terrorism is also the power to hurt. It is particularly difficult, after seeing images from terrorist attacks in Jerusalem, to entertain the idea that there could be any thought, logic, or goal in this kind of violence. But, unfortunately, there is. Suicide terrorism in particular follows a strategic logic with specific goals, targets, and times. My goal in this presentation is to show that, much like other coercive forms of diplomacy, suicide terrorism is a logical process synonymous to international coercion. Significantly, according to Robert Pape, the specific strategy of suicide terrorism can be seen in five explicit principles which further support the argument of suicide terrorism as a logical form of coercion. First, suicide terrorism is strategic in that it occurs in clusters as a part of a larger campaign by an organized group to achieve a specific political goal. Significantly, this organization will publicly announce a specific political goal and will stop attacks when said goal is reached. The second principle suggests that suicide terrorism is purposely designed to coerce a modern democracy to make concessions to national self-determination. The politically organized terrorist group seeks mainly to achieve specific territorial goals, especially withdrawal. Factual evidence supports this principle, in that every suicide terrorist attack has taken place against a democracy. Israel, and Jerusalem in particular, highlight these two ideals in that most suicide terrorists are Palestinians with nationalist goals and that Israel is in fact a democracy. Waves of suicide terrorism in Jerusalem often follow political actions that directly or indirectly impact the Palestinian movement, as the outbreak of the Second Intifada clearly showed.
The third principle supporting the logical attributes of suicide terrorism exists in the fact that acts of suicide terrorism have steadily risen in the last few decades, suggesting the success of this form of violent coercion. Observers within the terrorist national community, neutral analysts, and targeted government leaders all agree that suicide terrorist operations often accelerated of lead to concessions, further explaining the increase in suicide terrorist attacks. Indeed, statistics from the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs also indicate that the trend in suicide bombing attacks has increased since 2000. Between September 2000 and June 2002 alone, there have been 85 suicide attacks. In the attacks in this period, 307 Israelis were killed and 2,235 were wounded or maimed. This is out of a total of 576 killed.
It naturally follows that if suicide terrorism is a logical form of coercion, there must also be a diplomatic way to combat such acts, and this leads to the last two principles. Although some experts suggest that moderate acts of suicide terrorism led to moderate concessions, more ambitious suicide campaigns are not likely to achieve still greater gains and may well fail completely. The effectiveness of suicide terrorism relies on the threat to inflict low to medium levels of punishment on civilians and has rarely caused modern nation states to surrender high political goals. States may be pressured to make concessions in response to the panic of the civilian population, but they will not be willing to sacrifice important economic or security interests. Israel, again, is a prime representation of this principle. While Israel has perhaps been more open to peace talks, negotiations, and have in fact withdrawn from Gaza, they have yet to, and are not likely to, make many concessions on issues such as refugees or Jerusalem, which are too politically charged.
The final principle which highlights the strategy behind suicide terrorism lies in the best method or approach to combat this particular form of violence. According to experts, the best way to contain suicide terrorism is to undermine the confidence of the terrorists in their ability to carry out their attacks on the target society. Experts also tend to agree that offensive military action or concessions alone are unlikely to have much of an impact, and should instead invest significant resources in border defenses and other means of homeland security. While Israel has attempted both military action and concessions in the past, its recent investment in the security barrier has proven effective. Also, the security checkpoints in and around Jerusalem itself appears to have deterred terrorists to some extent, as the number of terrorist attacks in Jerusalem have decreased in recent years.
The understanding of target states of suicide terrorism also contributes to its inherent efficiency. Firstly it is understood, perhaps because it is promised by the terrorist organizations, that suicide terrorism is rarely a one time event. Because of this crucial component, then, suicide terrorism creates leverage both from the immediate panic associated with each attack and then with the promise of continued civilian punishment in the future. The heart of the strategy of suicide terrorism, then, rests on the same logic of coercive diplomacy used by stated when they employ sanctions or air strikes in that it causes mounting civilian costs which will eventually supercede the target states interests. It is, therefore, this promised “power to hurt” in the future that creates political leverage and therefore a capable strategy. Further, the act of suicide terrorism itself is a way to signal more attacks precisely because it violates societal norms and therefore suggests the seriousness of the organization in its willingness to achieve political goals.
Suicide terrorism is and will continue to be a major threat to Jerusalem precisely because of its anticipated effectiveness as a means of coercive diplomacy. Thousands of Israelis have died as a result of suicide bombers and it poses several serious questions to Israel, but Jerusalem in particular. About one-fourth of all terrorist attacks occur in Israel, largely because of the very politically and religiously charged atmosphere of the city. Not only are physical losses inherent in these attacks, but mental afflictions such as Post Traumatic Stress Disorder are becoming more and more common in Jerusalem as a result of not only witnessing terrorist acts, but anticipating more. It is particularly this fear and insecurity, however, that the political organizations behind most terrorist attacks rely on, giving them the fuel to continue these horrific acts of violence. Gaining a more comprehensive knowledge of these acts will hopefully help in combating terrorism in Jerusalem so that terrorist attacks, like those listed below, can be decreased. Below is a list of only a few terrorist attacks that have occurred in Jerusalem:
Aug 21, 1995 - Three Israelis and one American were killed in a suicide bombing of a Jerusalem bus.
Feb 25, 1996 - In a suicide bombing of bus No. 18 near the Central Bus Station in Jerusalem, 26 were killed (17 civilians and 9 soldiers). Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mar 3, 1996 - In a suicide bombing of bus No. 18 on Jaffa Road in Jerusalem, 19 were killed (16 civilians and 3 soldiers).
Jul 30, 1997 - 16 people were killed and 178 wounded in two consecutive suicide bombings in the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem.
Sep 4, 1997 - Five people were killed and 181 wounded in three suicide bombings on the Ben-Yehuda pedestrian mall in Jerusalem.
Nov 2, 2000 - Ayelet Shahar Levy, 28, and Hanan Levy, 33, were killed in a car bomb explosion near the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. 10 people were injured. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack
Mar 27, 2001 - A car bomb exploded at 7:40 in the morning in the Talpiot industrial/commercial zone in Jerusalem. Seven people were injured, one moderately. The Islamic Jihad has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mar 27, 2001 - 28 people were injured, two seriously, in a suicide bombing directed against a northbound No. 6 bus at the French Hill junction in Jerusalem. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
15 people were killed, including 7 children, and about 130 were injured in a suicide bombing at the Sbarro pizzeria at the corner of King George Street and Jaffa Road in downtown Jerusalem. Concealing the explosives in a guitar case which he had carried with him into Jerusalem, the terrorist entered the restaurant just before 2 PM and detonated the bomb. The 5 kg.-10 kg. bomb, which was packed with nails, screws, and bolts to ensure maximum damage, completely gutted the restaurant, which was full of lunchtime diners. The terrorist was killed in the blast. His controller was on the list of wanted terrorists submitted by Israel to the Palestinians Authority this week. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack.
Dec 1, 2001 - 11 people were killed and about 180 injured when explosive devices were detonated by two suicide bombers close to 11:30 P.M. Saturday night on Ben Yehuda Street, the pedestrian mall in the center of Jerusalem. A car bomb exploded nearby 20 minutes later. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack
Mar 2, 2002 - Eleven people were killed and over 50 were injured, 4 critically, in a suicide bombing at 19:15 on Saturday evening near a yeshiva in the ultra-Orthodox Beit Yisrael neighborhood in the center of Jerusalem where people had gathered for a bar-mitzva celebration. The terrorist detonated the bomb next to a group of women waiting with their baby carriages for their husbands to leave the nearby synagogue. The Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade took responsibility for the attack
Mar 9, 2002 - 11 people were killed and 54 injured, 10 of them seriously, when a suicide bomber exploded at 22:30 PM Saturday night in the crowded Moment cafe at the corner of Aza and Ben-Maimon streets in the Rehavia neighborhood in the center of Jerusalem. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mar 17, 2002 - A suicide bomber exploded himself near an Egged bus no. 22 at the French Hill junction in northern Jerusalem. 25 people were lightly injured
June 19, 2002 - Seven people were killed and 50 injured - three of them in critical condition - when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a crowded bus stop and hitchhiking post at the French Hill intersection in northern Jerusalem shortly after 7:00 P.M., as people were returning home from work. The Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack
July 31, 2002 - Nine people were killed and 85 wounded, 14 of them seriously, when a bomb exploded in the Frank Sinatra student center cafeteria on the Hebrew University's Mt. Scopus campus. The explosive device was planted inside the cafeteria, which was gutted by the explosion. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack
Nov 21, 2002 - Eleven people were killed and some 50 wounded by a suicide bomber on a No. 20 Egged bus on Mexico Street in the Kiryat Menahem neighborhood of Jerusalem. The bus was filled with passengers, including schoolchildren, traveling toward the center of the city during rush hour. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack
May 18, 2003 - Seven people were killed and 20 wounded in a suicide bombing on Egged bus no. 6 near French Hill in Jerusalem. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
A second suicide bomber detonated his bomb when intercepted by police in northern Jerusalem. The terrorist was killed; no one else was injured.
Mar 6, 2008 - Eight students of the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva in Jerusalem were killed when a terrorist armed with a Kalashnikov assault rifle infiltrated the yeshiva and opened fire in the library where about 80 people were gathered, mostly teenagers. Eleven others were wounded, three critically. The terrorist, a resident of East Jerusalem, was killed by an IDF officer
*Note: The articles of Robert Paper and Thomas Schelling contributed to this project.
